Water water everywhere but not a drop to drink

Same thing might happen in near future,  the load shedding this year was attributed to non availability of generation this year so new power plants have been put on fast track with 1200 MW of rentals, 2600 MW of IPPS, 1000 MW by WAPDA/PEPCO and more by SHYDO are supposed to be online soon. So does that mean there would be lesser load shedding. Think again, all this generation has to be carried out by high voltage transmission lines, transformed to lower voltgaes and distributed and all these three systems are defecient already. Even the generation available right now can not be utilized fully what to talk of more. So when in future the extra generation would be avialble and we would be doling out expensive dollars in capacity payments there might not be infra structure available to utilize it.

There is another catch, all these new plants are supposed to run on gas or oil of which there is no capacity in the country, even if some is imported it would be high cost, and not only that there is not enough transportation facilities available for taking the oil to the power houses. It is said we have lots of coal, but why use the resource or invest in that technology.

Alternate energy doesnot have much potential as it is costlier to install so finding investors for that would not be possible. There are no plans to add nuclear except a mere 300 MW in near future. So like being an agricultural country which is short of grain, soon we would have power houses but load shedding would persist.

Sacrificial Lambs

The joke goes like this;

The doctor asked the labourer how his left hand got injured. He replied infact at first it was his right hand, but to save that he took it out and put the left one into the machine.

Seems stupid, believe me it is not, in fact this seems to be the new power policy of our government. Both KESC and WAPDA have severe financial and technical woes, the situation of KESC is bad. To shore up the production of KESC, WAPDA was supplying power to it, even at the cost of load shedding in its own areas. Now as KESC had started doing even worse, the solution has been to give it more from WAPDA.

The current level of energy export would mean WAPDA would be giving more then Rs 4 Billion worth of energy every month to KESC, the joke is that its all for free. WAPDA operates most expensive plants on Diesel and KESC saves its revenue by operating on gas only. Everyone says Karachi is important, so it is, but does that mean that others are not. WAPDA owes it to its own customers first to supply them with power.

The situation of water supply is also bad, the shortage is already 30~40% but no plan has been drawn up, it is being used up like there is no tomorrow or people at helms of affair intend to solve the crisis when it would get deeper. The present lull in load shedding is not going to last much longer as soon as the hydel indents of major hydel stations are cut, there would be a huge gap in demand and supply again. The water indents would next increase in April 2009, till then where is the strategic management.

१०० Piaz १०० jootay

An old story goes something like this; once a man was being punished and was given a choice between hit by a shoe 100 times or eating 100 onions. He choose the latter and could not so many onions and had to get the १०० jootay too. Seems illogical, belive me its what is going on around here. During the tenure of a very effective Chairman Wapda from army it was contracted that the electricty purchase would be guaranteed by Government of Pakistan. Good or bad, we have to live with it. When electricity is purchased from IPPs, its payment becomes due, and on late payments there is additional intrest burden. I simple terms the payment has to be done, sooner or later.
Now the fuel supply due to delay in payment is hampering power production, while loadshedding goes unabated. It would further increase it, create problems for people, problems for the government and after lots of misery some decision would be made as how to arrange the funds or curtail which activity.
Believe me it would be done, but remember first १०० Piaz १०० jootay!

Wow! Statement after false statement by statesmen

The Governor of State Bank issued the monetary policy just to show that record borrowing has been done, so what’s her post for, just giving out these statements. News are full of people protesting everywhere about the state of economy and especially non availability of electricity. 

From the research I am able to do from the available data is Pakistan is that there is a very big difference in production and sale; meaning either the production processes are too flawed & inefficient or the profit margins are very high. I noticed it when it was pointed out in the media that CNG being sold to consumers at Rs 48 is supplied to the pumps at Rs 22. But when i collected data on my own it became evident this is the trend of our country. The vegetable bought from the farm at Rs. 5~10 are sold at the market at not less than Rs. 25. Government and bigwigs bought wheat at Rs 625 per 40 kilos and already the market price is Rs. 1200~1400.

So why is it so, is this phenomenon anywhere else in the world, what other countries do? Answering this question is rather easy; in civilizations there are some norms of doing business and a government to enforce it. But we are Muslims and so we have left it all to our Allah while the MNCs and hoarders fleece the people. I realize my present assignment requires me to keep mum, but enough is enough. Whenever I go out I see people unable to provide for their families.

In the power sector just convert the price of a barrel of oil into rupees to find and try imagining what is in future when the so called subsidies go and the government taxes stay. Now take one more step and calculate what is the production cost of one unit of electricity (say 1 liter produces 2 units) using this fuel. I can write it all down here but you will be more convinced when you do the math yourself.

At present a lot (cannot discuss here) is owed to the generation companies and the payment is already late meaning it will be paid with high interests. Many generators are being kept standby just because of the fuel problem while the loadshedding goes on unabated, which too is not being done properly, no schedule is announced meaning the less privileged get more of it which is immoral and illegal as for companies all the consumers should be equal. Its so sad we scream foul after the game; now media is saying Shortcut Aziz was a financial juggler when he is gone. Where were they when the future scenario was painted all rosy red?

A lot could still be done though time is running out. For starters make ration cards of fuel, every car gets 50 liters of cheaper fuel, 50 liters on standard and beyond that higher rates like you already do for electricity. The limit for motor cycles could be lower. Another decrease in demand can be achieved by advising motorists not to fill it up all the time, just get enough to get by on that particular day (the storage in vehicle tanks presently stand at 4 times the storage of oil companies manipulating costs). Similarly no CNG be put into cars that are not 5 years old, its odd that 2 million rupee car owners want subsidized fuel. Similarly domestic users of gas and electricity having bill lower than Rs. 300 may be exempted as suggested by Mr. Zaid on TV.

But I challenge the only real solution in the short term is conservation; we cannot afford to expand now. Commercial centers must close down before sunset, it is a big step but nobody wants to anger the businessmen. There business would be affected but will pickup during the day, do u really believe the people will stop buying when something is not available during the night. Our society will have to mend its ways, get up early, utilize the day hours like Europeans do. The closure of business and related activities would free up energy for industry and domestic users during the day. It would also bring down inflation. Businesses that remain open late use generators costing more than Rs.35 per unit and eventually transfer the cost to consumers. It is for the good of business too, not everyone can keep up with the rising prices and the sale would go down further unless the price hike is restricted. All this can be achieved just by adjusting to the way of Islam. Allah created daytime for work and night for rest. We will modernize, westernize or whatever the people want, and I am not against them but lets not sit idle do something.

I am no financial wizard, there are so many learned people in our country holding high posts that are paid to think and act. I want anyone reading this to counter my claims and figures; it does not matter if I am proven wrong or not totally correct. Come on do something, say something, and suggest something better.

Why does not anyone act!

It seems we are spiralling downward in a nose dive for reasons that could be controlled. The law and order is in disarray and drive to root out terroists is ending nowhere. The stock excahnge instead of providing for the country is actually fleecing out the hard earned cash of small investors. Now to top it all National Commodities Exchange Commission has started business. People with lots of money are manipulating the prices of commodities without any logical reason or demand and the government is doing nothing, nothing at all.

While we are horried at all the internal conflicts, the noose from external forces is being pulled tighter and the headlines news is that no one knows who will be controlling ISI, the prime minister or the Interior Minister. For God's sake it is a national institute which might have indulged in politics but has protected us too. Instead of make correct adjustments still administrative formalities are being discussed, the people at helm of affairs too must realise about their image.

Does not any one care,  are not the recent events enough for even the lesser IQ armymen clear to indicate that we are firing up the wrong hill. Why donot we  wish to leave the country to our kids in a better state than today, or is everything for today.

Businesses both local and MNC are allowed to manipulate, just compare the prices of medicine, detergents, cars, books etc across the border with India or China to see what a huge difference exists despaite the claims of world being a global village.

These are simple observations about issues I know little about, but the position is getting bleaker in the energy sector where I have some experience. CNG is being  sold at exorbitant prices and government is claiming that they are giving subsidy in petrol & diesel, so whats is future.. further hike. And what the financial managers are doing about it, printing more currecy, do we really need enemies when we have Dr Shamshad Akhter around.

There is a think tank in Pakistan about sustainable development which is silent these days, but everyone knows the current trend is not sustainable.  Some half baked energy saving measures were announced few months back but never implemented. Dear Pakistanis right now the only way out right now is conservation, please act before its too late.

100 Days are up

So the first 100 days are up and in the power sector there are two developments. First load shedding would be lifted in a year and second that ontrest has been shown by power companies for installation of 3800 MW within a year.

People of Pakistan are so naive or we are led to believe so. Does anyone know the cost of this installation, I do approxomately, but let others make guesses. One small hint is that it is not within our budgetry provisions. Even making up ends meet for power operations this year is not provided for. I fail to see to whom these tall promises are made, even the once profitable textile industry has almost collapsed.

The country has been running on promises that we are gonna be the next asian tiger and now all the conservation mrasures have been dropped beofre they were implemented. Is there anyone driving the bus, Allah save our country.

Deception, deception and more cooked up figures

The dreaded budget is here. It is supposed to provide relief, as I am no financial wizard as I would not comment much on except the power sector.
The current shortfall is 5500 MW, and average growth is more than 10% but for simplicity I would use it in my argument. By this rate additional 2000 MW are required this year and another 2200 MW next year, so the deficit should be 5500+2000+2200=9700 MW. Lets say the water & gas availability position next year would be better so lets halve the figure and we require 4800 MW. Now 2200 MW are to be added by nnext year, strange the claim is that it would be enough to put an end to load shedding, I wish I could laugh.
Then 2200 MW plus its transmission network would cost about 150 billion rupees and the present allocation doesnot indicate how it would be funded, even if some donors or bonds are floated there already 150 billion loss being faced by the power producers.
The present cost of thermal unit production is about Rs.15 and sale is about Rs 4.5 so there would be more losses. Fuel price increase in future will further increase the cost of production. The power system is ld, overloaded and needs revamping, but where's the money.
We have one precious resource that is hydel but talking about it is so political. So susidies would go which means there should be a review of tariff, which is very difficult as the government doesnot want to annoy anyone (means have to legs to stand on, it cannot even influence the traders to close shops in the evening lest they take out processions like the lawyers).
Whenever there is some wind of change I gow optimisitic, then everytime realise that no one has the courage to di it. General Zia had the chance to implement Shariat, General musharraf to build Kalabagh but maybe it is too much to expect from mere mortals.
The idea is to get rental power houses, obviously their rate would be higher, buts lets say its an acceptable strategy in the present circumstances to control loadshedding, but is it. For running of these power stations fuel is required, IPI would take long time coming, present production is unlikely to increase much especially when the Balochis have been mistreated for so long. The price of fuel is expected (I would say definitely) to rise to $200 in the next fiscal year. I would love to meet the financial wizar who is planning for the power sector of Pakistan. Now this is from a country which just shelved Kalabagh.
So what is my point in all this?. The startegy for a state like ours is to conserve and then plan and built better. For conserving belt tightening is required and not desireable for people with large bellies and planing need people who are not only qualified but also held accountable for their deeds, not like the city planners of Islamabad who have been building and dismantling the same part of the roads every year.
But for now lets watch the lawyers show, allegedly supported by the government, with one political entity claiming they are doing it for the judges, and others putting out similar lame excuses. After all they believe people of Pakistan are stupid, unless we act they are proven right.