Deception, deception and more cooked up figures

The dreaded budget is here. It is supposed to provide relief, as I am no financial wizard as I would not comment much on except the power sector.
The current shortfall is 5500 MW, and average growth is more than 10% but for simplicity I would use it in my argument. By this rate additional 2000 MW are required this year and another 2200 MW next year, so the deficit should be 5500+2000+2200=9700 MW. Lets say the water & gas availability position next year would be better so lets halve the figure and we require 4800 MW. Now 2200 MW are to be added by nnext year, strange the claim is that it would be enough to put an end to load shedding, I wish I could laugh.
Then 2200 MW plus its transmission network would cost about 150 billion rupees and the present allocation doesnot indicate how it would be funded, even if some donors or bonds are floated there already 150 billion loss being faced by the power producers.
The present cost of thermal unit production is about Rs.15 and sale is about Rs 4.5 so there would be more losses. Fuel price increase in future will further increase the cost of production. The power system is ld, overloaded and needs revamping, but where's the money.
We have one precious resource that is hydel but talking about it is so political. So susidies would go which means there should be a review of tariff, which is very difficult as the government doesnot want to annoy anyone (means have to legs to stand on, it cannot even influence the traders to close shops in the evening lest they take out processions like the lawyers).
Whenever there is some wind of change I gow optimisitic, then everytime realise that no one has the courage to di it. General Zia had the chance to implement Shariat, General musharraf to build Kalabagh but maybe it is too much to expect from mere mortals.
The idea is to get rental power houses, obviously their rate would be higher, buts lets say its an acceptable strategy in the present circumstances to control loadshedding, but is it. For running of these power stations fuel is required, IPI would take long time coming, present production is unlikely to increase much especially when the Balochis have been mistreated for so long. The price of fuel is expected (I would say definitely) to rise to $200 in the next fiscal year. I would love to meet the financial wizar who is planning for the power sector of Pakistan. Now this is from a country which just shelved Kalabagh.
So what is my point in all this?. The startegy for a state like ours is to conserve and then plan and built better. For conserving belt tightening is required and not desireable for people with large bellies and planing need people who are not only qualified but also held accountable for their deeds, not like the city planners of Islamabad who have been building and dismantling the same part of the roads every year.
But for now lets watch the lawyers show, allegedly supported by the government, with one political entity claiming they are doing it for the judges, and others putting out similar lame excuses. After all they believe people of Pakistan are stupid, unless we act they are proven right.

Load Management Measures

June 1st the day the load amangement measures announced by GOP kicks in. I am adamant the problem is mismanagement. The measure can have positive effects, these are nothing new, day light saving concept is here since 1905, sttreet lights get switched on and off by a proximity switch in Japan since 1950s, Europeans and others around the world close down at 5 pm yet their businesses prosper.
Its mostly about wastage, just go out anywhere and count the extra lights that can be turned of without any ill effect. As an experiment anyone of you intrested while on next trip to bazaar count the extras for 5 shops and come up with the answer of what could be saved.
What mostly is like to happen is that one pressure group after another would get relaxations and governement would look the other way. We had British rule, All India Act, different constitutions, martial laws all had good laws but the problem always were with the implementation.
Now if energy would be saved it could lessesn the plight of common man but most importantly should be given to the industry. But still lavish decorations at malls, commercial plazas, and other buildings can be seen. So its likely so very leraned person at the end of summer would read out from a piece of paper that these steps were not effective so some new experiment would be done next year.